Objective: To investigate whether tandem gait test (TG) can predict future falls and/or near falls in people with Parkinson’s disease (PD).

Background: People with PD have balance problems and an increased risk for falls. Although TG has been considered a predictor of falls, no PD-study has controlled results for demographic and disease-specific characteristics or included near falls when investigating falls prospectively.

Methods: The study included 141 participants with PD (mean age and PD-duration, 68 and 4 years, respectively). Those >80 years of age, requiring support in standing or did not understand the instructions were excluded. TG includes taking 10 consecutive tandem steps along a straight line without walking aids and support, with eyes open. Performance was scored as follows: no side steps=0; one or more side steps=1; unable to take 4 consecutive steps=2. If TG was abnormal ("1 side steps) during the first attempt, a second trial was allowed and the best performance was registered. Anti-Parkinsonian medications were recorded from medical records. All assessments were conducted in the “on” condition. Participants thereafter registered all falls and near falls by using a diary for six months.

Results: Mean score for UPDRS III was 14 (SD 8.0). The median (q1-q3) daily total levodopa equivalent (LDE) dose (mg) was 400 (286-600). Sixty-three participants (45%) experienced ≥1 fall and/or near fall. The median (q1-q3) TG score was 2 (1-2) for those that experienced falls and/or near falls and 0 (0-1) for those without any incidents. Logistic regression (controlling for age, gender, UPDRS III and daily LDE dose) showed that TG score 2 (OR, 5.40; 95% CI, 1.75-16.70; P=0.003) predicted falls and/or near falls. TG score 1 was not significant (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 0.84-5.98; P=0.109). This model correctly classified 39/63 (62%) of individuals with falls and/or near falls and 64/78 (82%) of individuals without any incidence, and accounted for 32% of the variability between groups.

Conclusions: The results suggest that TG may be able to predict a future fall and/or near fall in people with mild PD. Further studies using larger samples are needed for firmer conclusions and establishment of additional properties in relation to other assessments.